Everyone who has tried to remove President Yoweri Museveni from power, either by force or through democratic means, has miserably failed—it is now 39 years since the son of Amos Kaguta in Rwakitura took over power as a rebel in 1986.
Rebellions in the north, east, southwest, and central Uganda have been formed against him, but the man with the hat has crushed them all. Politicians and political parties have toyed with the democratic route but have come short of removing Museveni.
Just like he has been able to build a strong, unbeatable army, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), Museveni has also built a strong and cult-like political base using the National Resistance Movement (NRM) machinery, a political party that morphed out of the National Resistance Army (NRA), a rebel outfit that brought him to power.
Periodical national elections every five years since 1996 have been a channel through which Museveni has legitimised his unending action-packed rule, even though his political and social opponents claim that these voting exercises have been abused with vote rigging, election violence, and many other alleged undemocratic practices.
Legalising a dictatorship
Museveni’s overstay in power has made him christened a dictator by people unfriendly to his work methods and have called his regime a junta. He maintains that he has been able to stay in power through democratic means and that his reign is not a dictatorship. He has been accused of making illegalities legal by using the parliament and judiciary.
Since the return to multiparty politics, Museveni has based his power on the numbers in parliament that are on his side to get his way around maintaining his tight grip on power.
The parliament, which he dominates through his ruling political party, the NRM, was able to remove the two-term presidential limit to allow him to contest for president until he gets tired or dies. The same parliament removed the 75-year age limit to allow him to contest without any age limitation.
With a Parliament on his leash, Museveni has been able to legalise or make legal what he wants, and that which enables him to rule Uganda. Democratically abnormal decisions have been made by Parliament to sanitise Museveni’s extended rule.
Some political leaders allege that laws like the Public Order Management Act (POMA), which requires Ugandans to seek permission from the Inspector General of Police (IGP) to hold any public gathering, have been passed targeting opposition politicians and their activities. Police have, on many occasions, used this law to stop or disburse meetings by opposition leaders.
It is believed that Museveni has used his popularity and political tokenism to create more constituencies across the country to get more supportive members of parliament who will do as he orders them to do. That is how Uganda has ended up with over 520 MPs—including women MPs representing the hundreds of districts created by the Museveni regime.
With such contested political methods, it is becoming evident that it will be hard to beat Museveni and eventually remove him out of power using the very methods that have failed to work for Dr. Paul Kawanga Ssemwogerere, Dr. Kizza Besigye, and now Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, also known as Bobi Wine.
The grand proposed Bigirwa strategy
It is at this point that Moses Bigirwa, the founding president of the Eastern Revolutionary Platform (ERP), is proposing a change in tactics to counter and defeat Museveni, starting with the 2026 national elections.
On 24 July 2024, Bigirwa wrote to sixteen leading opposition political parties and organisations with a proposal that would see Museveni lose the numbers in parliament. Bigirwa’s strategy requires that the opposition put their efforts on the parliamentary elections if they need to have change. “As a legislative arm, it [parliament] can be used to cripple the regime,” Bigirwa says of his plan.
Bigirwa also wants opposition politicians in the country to focus and deploy their resources in subregions where they are loved, supported, and strong, instead of focusing on an entire country, even in places where they are not supported.
According to Bigirwa, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) should focus on delivering Teso, Bugishu, Bukedi, Kasese, and parts of Acholi and Lango, while also picking a few seats from Central and Western regions. Then, the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) should concentrate solely on Ankole under Mugisha Muntu’s leadership. The National Economic Empowerment Dialogue (NEED) should put all its efforts on Bunyoro, leveraging Joseph Kabuleta’s influence.
The Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) should focus on Lango and parts of Acholi. The National Unity Platform (NUP) under Bobi Wine and the Democratic Alliance (DA) under Mathias Mpuuga should prioritise Central Uganda (Buganda), where they have the capacity to win all seats. The Democratic Party (DP) should concentrate on Acholi and select areas of Buganda.
JEEMA and ERP should target Busoga and some parts of Central Uganda by JEEMA. The People’s Progressive Party (PPP), with its presence in Acholi through Hon. Santa Okot, can influence and win additional seats in that region. The People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), under Dr. Kizza Besigye, can effectively deliver Kigezi.
Bigirwa then wonders: With this strategy, how will Museveni’s NRM win a majority in Parliament? Following this plan, the opposition could secure over 300 MPs in the 12th Parliament! We strongly urge all opposition parties to embrace this strategy; it’s our best chance to achieve a united front and victory.
It is a game of numbers
In the letter to the sixteen political parties, Bigirwa worked the numbers, and they made perfect sense—if things happen as he has calculated.
This is his math: Eastern Uganda, comprising subregions of Elgon, Kiira (Busoga), and Teso, represents a total of 101 constituencies, 40 districts, and three special interest group representatives (youth, elderly, and PWDs). Of the directly elected MPs, 45 are from Elgon, 32 from Kiira, and 24 from Teso.
The western region has 92 constituencies, 29 districts, and three special interest group representatives (youth, elderly, and PWDs). The southwestern part has 53 MPs, the Midwest (Tooro and Rwenzori) has 19 MPs, and 21 MPs are from Bunyoro.
In the North, there are 83 constituencies, 41 districts, and three special interest group representatives, giving the region a total of 127 MPs—these include 40 MPs from Acholi and Lango, 26 from West Nile, and 17 in Karamoja.
The central region has 76 constituencies, 26 districts, and three representatives of special interest groups, giving it 105 MPs – of the directly elected MPs, 25 are in Greater Kampala (Kampala, Wakiso, and Mukono). The area of Central North (Mubede, Nakaseke, Luwero, Nakasongola, and Kayunga, among others) has 19 MPs, while Central South (Greater Masaka) has 32 MPs.
How it will work and by who
Bigirwa suggests that different parties and personalities are allocated where they can best achieve results. For example, if Mugisha Muntu (ANT) focused on Ankole, he can fetch 15 MPs; Dr. Kizza Besigye (PFF) in Kigezi can get 10 MPs; Jack Sabiti (FDC) in Kigezi can also get 13 MPs; Joseph Kabuleta (NEED) in Bunyoro can get 15 MPs; Hassan Kaps Fungaroo (FDC) in West Nile can earn 10 MPs; Kasiano Wadri, also in West Nile, can get 15 MPs; and Nobert Mao (DP) in Acholi can get 20 MPs.
Gilbert Oulanyah and Odongo Otto (FDC) in Acholi can get 3 MPs, Santa Okot (PPP) in Acholi can get 4 MPs, Jimmy Akena (UPC) in Lango and Karamoja can get 20 MPs, Patrick Amuriat (FDC) in Teso and Sebei can get 20 MPs, Nandala Mafabi (FDC) and John Nambeshe (NUP) can get 30 MPs, Eastern Revolutionary Front (Busoga) can get 30 MPs, Asuman Basalirwa (JEEMA) in Busoga can get 5 MPs, Bobi Wine (NUP) in Buganda (80 MPs), and Mathias Mpuuga (DA) in Greater Masaka can get 10 MPs. This totals to 300 MPs.
Bigirwa explains that his proposal extends beyond mere electoral expediency; that it is a vital response mechanism to address the pressing concerns of Ugandans disillusioned with the status quo.
“By prioritising this initiative, we can effectively mitigate the escalating tensions and provide a constructive outlet for widespread discontent, thereby averting a massive catastrophic uprising against the regime,” Bigirwa notes.
To win these parliamentary seats, Bigirwa says it requires a unified approach, including convening opposition party meetings, establishing coordinating committees, creating campaign plans, and forming strategic alliances to build support and momentum.
Making sense of Bigirwa’s proposal
This is a plan that can work, at least according to Moses Kasibante, the former MP for Lubaga North. Kasibante is of the view that the political playground should be extended beyond Kampala so as to alienate Museveni and NRM. This, he says, can be done if big politicians go back to their rural areas and preach the gospel of political change.
“The Eastern Revolutionary Platform is saying that we can ably speak Lusoga, and the power we have, we got it from Busoga; let’s not take it to Kampala. Let us liberate Busoga. Imagine if Rubongoya [Secretary General of NUP] takes the western revolutionary front and delivers western Uganda!” Kasibate said, encouraging people who want to remove Museveni to consider taking the battleground outside Kampala.
Despite an elaborate proposal, it has received a cold reception from those Bigirwa thought would buy and lay an implementation strategy. Bigirwa has not received a response from the opposition parties, not even a rejection response.
