By Jacob Ssemuwulu
I do not want to read too much into Daniel Mulirire’s (Uncle Dan) application challenging his disqualification from contesting the Budiope East parliamentary seat at this early stage. However, I can predict that the constituency could soon experience a change of guard.
My perspective is informed by reading the political mood at the national, regional and village levels.
If a by-election happens, I would hardly expect the good Engineer Moses Magogo to return to contest in what could look like a race against the state.
Strangely, the tide of time may be turning against him and his allies.
I predict that the invisible hand working against Anita Annet Among is still active and may seek to erode more of her influence. This force could be intent on uprooting the political taproot of Budiope East.
The recent purge of parliamentary workers reportedly recruited by Anita Among is an example of what appears to be an ongoing effort to cleanse institutions of people associated with her political network in Bukedea.
All these forces have been politically active in Budiope East. They have engaged in burial politics, nigiina and other social occasions to strengthen their grip on the political power game in Parliament and Buyende District.
I hardly see them maintaining the same level of activity in the near future.
The possible lack of endorsement from the NRM Secretariat, senior politicians and figures from the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) could also change the political equation.
If that happens, I can only speculate that the tweeting general would make remarks on the matter, potentially helping to level the political playing field.
The security apparatus that was once deployed against their opponents could, in such a scenario, remain on the sidelines as observers.
That would weaken the fear factor and the aura of power associated with the group.
Political rivals and regional opponents who were sidelined during the group’s heyday could resurface in a big way. Former Speaker Rebecca Alitwala Kadaga would undoubtedly call the shots.
Kadaga, the Lioness of Busoga, could rally the region to challenge Bukedea’s influence once and for all.
I hardly see a scenario in which the President would restrain R.A.K. from asserting her influence in the region.
Soon, villagers could realise that, after all, Moses Magogo is an ordinary person.
The open-handed distribution of money associated with the “Make a Line” campaign might no longer be possible if the security personnel who allegedly prevented people from recording evidence of voter bribery were no longer present.
The moral dilemma for Magogo would be explaining to the electorate why he denied the people of the constituency the opportunity to elect their preferred candidate.
For the first time, the group could find itself having to answer directly to voters. Questions could emerge about how its members accumulated such unprecedented wealth that, in the author’s view, even unsettled the presidency.
The long motorcades that accompanied the duo’s appearances could become a thing of the past. Many friends and well-wishers might quietly disappear into oblivion.
Then, the political reality could return to Budiope East’s familiar pattern of one-term MPs.
From Hon. Lubowa to Hon. Kayizzi, Hon. Balikowa, Hon. Suleiman, Hon. Dhamuzungu and now Magogo, the constituency has experienced a succession of representatives.
A levelled political playing field and a visibly weakened Moses Magogo political empire could reopen the race, creating an opportunity to move from legal manoeuvres to electing a representative through a popular vote.
New political battle lines would then emerge, particularly between Geoffrey Dhamuzungu and his uncle, Daniel Mulirire, the petitioner.
For now, Dhamuzungu appears to have an advantage over Uncle Dan in a popular contest, judging by the NRM primary election results, in which the former reportedly garnered more than 15,000 votes against about 2,000 for the latter.
END OF PART ONE
JACOB SSEMUWULU
Freelance Writer
